A successor to the Apple Vision Pro could be a long time coming, according to well-known supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Kuo has been covering Apple’s supply chain for more than a decade and is one of the most prominent Apple analysts. In the past, his predictions have often been correct.
In a blog post last week, Kuo writes that based on some component suppliers’ maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000 – 600,000 units.
Kuo goes on to write that Apple may have scrapped plans for a lower-priced Vision Pro, rumored to be released in 2025. He believes that the company will have to lower the price significantly to increase sales starting in 2025. The Vision Pro will be released in 2024 and will start at $3,500 as per Apple.
Vision Pro 2 may not launch until 2027
The Apple Vision Pro 2 could go into mass production no later than the first half of 2027. If the cheaper headset has indeed been canceled, it would take years for a hardware update to arrive, Kuo notes.
The supply chain analyst has no doubt that Vision Pro will provide an “excellent experience”. The question, he says, is why users actually need this product. “The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone.”
My opinion: Kuo’s doubts are justified
As someone who has covered the VR industry daily for the past seven years, I agree with Kuo’s assessment. Apple is marketing the Vision Pro as a spatial computer without providing any compelling reasons why it should be preferred to, say, a Macbook, which is significantly cheaper and doesn’t have to be worn on your face.
Vision Pro will undoubtedly be well received by enterprises and professionals, and will become the dominant headset in niche applications such as 3D design, but will struggle with consumers, at least at this price and form factor. That is, unless developers come up with a killer app for the device that no one has thought of yet.